Coastal Flooding in Ireland:
Property Growth and Rising Financial Risk
Ireland's coastline is expanding with new development — but how much of it sits in the path of an extreme flood event? Our latest analysis quantifies the exposure, county by county.
What Ireland's rapid build-out means for insurers, banks, and policymakers
Between mid-2020 and mid-2025, Ireland added over 112,000 new addresses. Using the Eircode Address Database and our high-resolution coastal flood models, KatRisk has assessed what proportion of that growth sits in harm's way — and what it could cost.
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Key findings at a glance
Based on KatRisk's analysis of the Eircode Address Database, Q2 2020 vs Q2 2025
+112,354
New addresses added to Ireland's property base over 5 years — a 4.8% increase
€4.5bn
Estimated total potential claims if every at-risk address were flooded in a worst-case scenario
4.5%
Of all Irish addresses remain exposed to extreme coastal flooding — a proportion that has held steady even as the absolute number of at-risk properties rises
€2bn
Total rebuild value of the most severely exposed single-occupancy residential properties
6,407
Single-occupancy residential properties facing flood depths exceeding 2.5m — likely requiring full rebuild
The Analysis
Measuring extreme risk with the highest-resolution data available
Ireland added 112,354 new addresses between mid-2020 and mid-2025. Of those, 4,774 sit within the modelled extreme coastal flood zone — and while the share of at-risk properties has barely moved (4.52% to 4.50%), a stable percentage masks a growing absolute problem: more properties, more insured value, deeper in harm's way.
To define "extreme," KatRisk modelled a coastal flood 1.75 metres above the existing 100-year return rate, producing flood depths ranging from 3 metres in the South-East to 5.5 metres in the West and North-East.
But the national number obscures where the real pressure falls — and that is the point.
Dublin alone accounts for €1.57 billion of the €4.5 billion total — more than a third of national exposure, driven by coastal property volume and the commercial multiplier in the city centre. Clare (€500m) and Louth (€434m) follow, for different reasons: low-lying Shannon Estuary properties in the first case, extreme modelled flood depths in the second. Meanwhile, Wexford and Wicklow — despite large coastal footprints — rank far lower, because the model anticipates shallower water.
Property count is a poor proxy for risk. Flood depth is what matters.
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The data is clear.
The question is what the industry does next.
Coastal flood risk in Ireland is not evenly spread. It is concentrated, quantifiable, and growing in absolute terms even as the relative exposure rate holds steady.
For insurers, banks, and risk managers, the county-level detail in this report is the starting point for understanding where that pressure falls, stress-testing portfolios against it, and engaging with policymakers before the next extreme event makes the conversation unavoidable.
